At times over the last two years, it has felt that gazing into Merlin’s crystal ball would provide more answers when trying to predict the Japanese Government’s border control policies towards COVID-19.

It’s been a long time since tourists have freely been allowed to enter the country (April 3rd 2020 to be precise). Since then, there have been many ebbs and flows to this saga involving: 5 epidemic waves, demonstrations, an apathetic public towards the Olympic Games and a new Prime Minister to name a few. 

Throughout all this domestic and international uncertainty, one constant remains…Japan is going to be hit with a truckload of snow this winter. The question is which side of the border will you be when it does?

The short answer is we don’t know yet. All of what you are about to read is speculation based on the current (and past) actions taken by the Japanese government. We look at the two sides to this tale from the perspective of both an optimist and pessimist and then let you decide.

If you’re to be given both good and bad news, then it’s always best to start with the bad news first…right?

The pessimist:

Like many other countries around the world both the Japanese Government and health ministry are relying heavily on the rollout of the vaccine to curb hospitalisations and strain on the health care system. The bad news is that this process has so far been incredibly slow.

While current data predicts that 80% of the population will be vaccinated by November 17^th it remains to be seen if these numbers can be met. The health care system in Japan is the closest it has been to breaking point with many patients being turned away as capacity limits have been reached. In a recent interview given by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga he told reporters that his regret was that his government ‘had trouble securing hospital capacity.’

These sentiments have also been echoed by Fiscal Minster Yasutoshi Nishimura who oversees COVID-19 measures by reiterating that ‘We need to stabilize medical systems and make sure that infections are steadily decreasing.’

Japan is seeing the tail end of its biggest spike in infections since the start of the pandemic reaching 25,892 per day at its hight. Scientists have pointed to the fact that deaths have almost halved compared to the last wave since the vaccination role out began. However, as winter draws closer with the usual increase in infections expected, it is yet unknown if the government will be willing to reduce border measures let alone open the borders for international travel.

While the Tokyo Olympics eventually received the green light, the Japanese Football Association has cancelled it’s involvement in this year’s FIFA Club World Cup which is due to take place from December 9 to 19. Unable to guarantee that supporters would be able to attend the matches, it highlights the uncertainty of even top officials that policies will change by then.

Predicted changes to border measures: March 12^th 2022

Outcome of border changes: 10-day isolation for unvaccinated. 5-day for vaccinated.  

Predicted date that Japan opens its borders to tourists: June 12^th 2022

The optimist:

Even the most ardent of powder chasing individuals will be casting a wary eye towards the developing political situation in Japan.

The good news is that border measures are already beginning to loosen. The health ministry has decided that from October 1st entrants from any country who can prove that they have been fully vaccinated will be required to self-quarantine at either a hotel of their choosing or home for 10 days. This makes a change from the current 14-day mandatory quarantine and 3 to 6 days stay in a government-designated facility. The main problem is that public transport is still off limits (domestic flights, buses, trains, ferries) so holiday makers would still have to quarantine in the city they arrived at unless they pay for a private taxi to their location.

There is a lot of external pressure from lobbyists being put on current Suga’s administration to loosen restrictions. This has come most notability from Japan’s biggest business lobby ‘The Japan Business Federation’ or more locally known as Keidanren. In mid-august they recommended that quarantine time be reduced to 10 days for non-vaccinated travellers and vaccinated passport holders to be exempt from quarantine and testing upon arrival.

Suga’s administration has listened to the lobbyists and with continued pressure from Keidanren it will only be a matter of time before restrictions are lifted further. The health ministry has however reiterated that a reversal of policy could happen if there is a new COVID-19 strain like the Delta variant which could potentially weaken the vaccines’ effectiveness.

The political landscape is also set to shift in the upcoming months with Suga announcing that he would step down earlier this year. It means that on the 29th of September there will be a new party leadership vote to determine the next leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Once the new Prime Minister is elected there will be a cabinet reshuffle scheduled for early October. While unlikely, this could be the earliest date that we see more changes to the current border measures.

The next big event is the general election set to take place later this year. The current parliament will run until October 21st. Depending on a few factors the latest date that the election could take place would be on the 14th of November. There will be a new cabinet minister overseeing decisions made by the health ministry to determine border regulations. It means that in early December we could see more changes.   

Another positive is that the government seems to act quickly from announcement to implementation. There has only been 7 days between the first indication that quarantine measures would be eased to nationwide adoption of these policy changes. While there will be incremental reductions to the measures before a fully open border, it shows how quickly the landscape could change. 

If, and this is a BIG if, current infection rates stay the same and hospitalisations continue to decrease as well as no new variants being detected then we could see further changes in December. Fully vaccinated travellers who have had vaccines approved for use in Japan (Pfizer/BioNTech, Oxford/AstraZeneca or Moderna) will most likely be allowed to reduce days spent in isolation or avoid quarantine measures entirely. 

The backlog of visa applications will also have to be dealt with as well before tourist visas start to be granted. 

Predicted changes to border measures: December 12^th 2021

Outcome of border changes: 10-day isolation for unvaccinated. 7-day for vaccinated.  

Predicted date that Japan opens its borders to tourists: February 12^th 2022

What do you think will happen? Let us know in the comment section below?